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lyBangladesh has been witnessing significant political upheaval since mid-2024. In August 2024, former PM Sheikh Hasina left Bangladesh amid allegations of corruption and political violence, creating a power vacuum. Subsequently, Md. Yunus was appointed as the head of an interim government on August 8, 2024. He promised to implement reforms and oversee free elections. Under Md. Yunus regime, the nation has experienced a mix of challenges and developments across political, economic, and social spheres.
The interim government, initially expected to facilitate swift elections. However, political parties in Bangladesh accuse Yunus’s administration of intentionally delaying the electoral process, leading to increased political tension. The period following Yunus’s appointment has been marked by instability and violence. Let’s decode the Bangladesh turmoil first.
Bangladesh turmoil in making
At political domain, a student protest against the quotas in govt jobs. Student protesters demanded jobs based on merit and not on quotas. A FIR was filed on August 13, 2024 against her and other former associates. She has been charged with conspiracy to eliminate the students involved in protests, and the mistreatment and the killing of hundreds of the protesters, which are labelled as genocide and crimes against humanity.
Economically, due to political uncertainty, countries and organizations have reduced investments in Bangladesh, causing financial strain. Consequently, economic instability has led to higher prices for food, fuel, and basic goods, increasing dissatisfaction among the population. Also, Bangladesh’s key export sector, the textile and garment industry, has suffered from declining global demand and labor strikes.
Also, there is an external angle. Over 1 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar face deteriorating conditions due to potential foreign aid cuts, particularly from the U.S. under President Trump. This reduction threatens to halve their food rations, exacerbating malnutrition and potential unrest within the camps. Also, the US was not happy with the growing proximity between Beijing and Dhaka.
Should India have provided support to Ms Hasina?
India can argue that Ms. Hasina has committed political offences, which are a legitimate ground to reject such a proposal to deport her. The notion of criminal offense doesn’t apply on her. Also, Ms. Hasina, though not an Indian citizen, is still protected by Articles 20 and 21 of the Indian Constitution. Therefore, it is the constitutional duty of India to peotect her fundamental rights enshrined in Indian constitution.
Also, we should also remember one thing that, under Sheikh Hasina India’s Bangladesh relations have been outstanding specially in negating extremism in north east. Also, trust factor also comes into picture. It would also give bad impression among leaders in the world who trust India, if India doesn’t extend support her allies. Therefore, extending support shows trust component of India.
Along with this, if India refuses her asylum, China or Pakistan may offer support, leading to a pro-China/Pakistan shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy. Therefore, Keeping Hasina in India could help maintain influence over Bangladesh’s political landscape in longer run. Also, If her life is in danger, denying her asylum could damage India’s global image as a protector of democracy and human rights.
How has India’s shelter to Hasina impacted India?
There are challenges like growing hostility in neighbourhood and human rights violation of minorities in Bangladesh. Also, Stability in Bangladesh is crucial for peace in India’s Northeast and overall South Asian security. A politically unstable Bangladesh could lead to spillover effects, such as increased illegal migration, cross-border militancy, and economic disruptions. Also, it may not give good impression among people of Bangladesh towards India.
Along with this, with Sheikh Hasina’s exit, China has increased its investments and diplomatic outreach in Bangladesh. If India does not engage actively, Bangladesh could drift closer to China, reducing India’s strategic influence in the region. Apart from this, Bangladesh is struggling with the Rohingya refugee issue. A worsening situation could lead to illegal migration into India since India and Bangladesh shares 4096.7 km long border.
Possible policy options before India
India must adopt a balanced and strategic approach toward Bangladesh under Muhammad Yunus to safeguard its economic, security, and geopolitical interests. In this context, the Indian govt can allow an in-house arrest of Ms. Hasina in India in the same condition she is staying in India. Also, India can ensure that she participates in her trial through video conferencing with a lawyer of her choice physically present before a Bangladesh court.
Till the situation gets normalized, India should follows the strategic patience. Along with this, India may spur backchannel diplomacy with Bangladesh. In shorter run, India should extend hand of diplomacy with Bangladesh’s current leadership. Subsequently, India should push for free and fair elections without openly favoring any political faction or intervening in internal matter of Bangladesh.
At the same time, India must counter China’s growing influence by offering competitive economic investments, infrastructure projects, and military cooperation. It may help in preventing Bangladesh from becoming overly dependent on Beijing. Apart from this, strengthening border security, intelligence-sharing, and counterterrorism cooperation is equally important to prevent any potential security spillover into India.
In conclusion
Recently, Md. Yunus said – “Bangladesh has no option but to have good relations with India since the two countries are dependent on each other, though propaganda has given rise to “some conflicts” between them.” This statement of Mr. Yunus has gives optimistic picture of India-Bangladesh relations. A stable, friendly Bangladesh benefits India strategically, economically, and geopolitically.
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