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Donald Trump’s second term as the 47th President of the United States of America began in January 2025. It marks the start of a new ‘Trumpian’ era that may be different from Trump 2.0. Previously serving as the 45th President in 2017, Mr. Trump has already signed several executive orders, including declaring a national emergency at the US-Mexico border, withdrawing from the Paris Agreement regarding climate negotiation and the World Health Organization (WHO), and ending birthright citizenship. Trump 2.0 is going to affect geopolitical paradigm in many ways.
Weakening of Multilateralism
In this context, Donald Trump has withdrawn from multilateral agreements like Paris deal and WHO. This step has weakened multilateralism. The US exit from the Paris Agreement reduces motivation for global climate goals that promises to contain temperature by 1.5 degree celcius from pre-industrial level.
The central argument provided by the US is that multilateral institutions have strengthened the Chinese counterpart as rising hegemon. For instance, due to China in WTO, its share in world trade has increased from 4% in 1990s to 17% in 2017. Therefore, Donald Trump attempts for rolling back of globalization that has benefitted China. Today, China has not only secured its backayard by weakening first island chain, but also increased presence in the backyard of USA.
U.S.-China Relations: Confrontational or Unpredictable
Trump 2.0 has been in hurry to reshift focus in Indo-Pacific. Basically, Barack Obama has shifted sand of geopolitics from middle east to Indo-Pacific since real threat is China for USA. It is so because China has been emerging power that is potentially challenging the hegemon power, USA. Moreover, during Biden term, USA distracted from the trajectory and entangled in Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflict. Therefore, Trump 2.0 has been in hurry to settle these dust so that they could re-focus on Indo-Pacific i.e., real threat towards China.
Consequently, Trump is likely to escalate economic tensions with China, possibly imposing higher tariffs and restricting Chinese access to U.S. technology. Military tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan could rise if Trump reaffirms U.S. support for Taiwan. However, uncertainity of USA poses a layer of challenges. It is still not clear that how USA is going to take China in near future. It is so because creadibility of USA has been lowest among her allies since USA is one of the most untrustworthy partner in geopolitics witnessed in Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine etc.
Potential Shift in U.S. Policy towards Russia
During Trump 1.0, Mr Trump was very much antagonistic towards India on buying energy from Russia. Contrastingly, in Trump 2.0, Trump has been open to negotiations with Putin, suggesting he may reduce military aid to Ukraine or push for a peace deal favoring Russia. Here, Trump’s understanding is that Russia is the problem of Europe and not USA. Therefore, Mr. Trump wants to focus on his problem i.e., China. In this context, Mr. Trump wants to induce crack between China and Russia by going closer with Russia.
Therefore, Mr. Trump has extended hand with Russia by recalling the collaboration efforts of USA and Russia in re-building Europe. It has diferent implications on the globle. On the one hand, this could weaken NATO unity, as European nations may doubt U.S. commitment to collective defense. However, on the other thand, it may benefits India by reducing if and buts against India. Thus, it would ensure lifting embargo from Russia that would spur India-Russia trade further.
Changing equation in Europe
Major changes in Trump 2.0 is reflecte in Europe. U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s speech criticized European approaches to democracy and free speech, suggesting ideological divergences between the U.S. and Europe. He argued that Europe’s challenges stem from internal issues, including multiculturalism and migration, and accused European elites of limiting freedom of speech. Divergences became more clear when USA persued talks with Russia in Saudi on Russia-Ukraine peace without involving EU and even Ukraine.
Therefore, one thing has become clear that only economic interdependence is not going to save Europe. Europe has to build her own deterrence and defense capabilities. In this context, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky advocated for a unified European army to counter external threats, particularly from Russia. This call reflects Europe’s move towards greater self-reliance in defense matters.
Dynamics of middle east: Stability of chaos
It is being argued by geopolitical pundits that Trump is going to reduce involvement in Israel-Gaza and Iran tensions. Also, it is pressuring Israel to handle its conflicts independently. Also, Trump during his first term signed Abraham Accord to bring peace in middle east. It is not only favourable for USA but also for India as well. In this context, even USA is willing to manage Iran by calling her to re-negotiate nuclear deal with Iran.
Moreover, Trump has maintained strong relations with Saudi Arabia, particularly with Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). He could support Saudi efforts to counter Iran, possibly strengthening more Saudi military action in Yemen. It is so because USA can’t take her adversaries for granted. Thus, A new Saudi-Israel normalization deal could be pursued. Mr. Trump is also agreed to work together to build the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) and called it one of the greatest trade routes.
Therefore, Trump 2.0 would not be easy to predict. It is so because Trump’s way of doing work has been transactional and fluctuating. Thus, drawing geo-stratagic arc of Trump 2.0 would be very difficult. So, Trump 2.0 could bring a mix of hardline economic policies, diplomatic unpredictability, and military disengagement.
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